When I was in statistics classes at the University of Delaware, I learned that a good forecast depends on good data. About 20 years ago, I started using our database of quotes and orders to forecast the next year’s business. I prefer a 3-month moving average forecast for quarterly business decision making, and a 3-year moving average for yearly strategic decision making. The Lock Down years were unusual and affected my data and my business forecasting accuracy.
Over time we found that there was a seasonality in the storage market our company is in, and there are two peaks in business. The first is in late spring and the second is between Thanksgiving and year end.
Looking at our data we have seen three trends over the past year:
Based on conversations, notes, and our database I expect that during 2023 these trends will continue, as companies trim spending due to the economic outlook.
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